Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 34%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2133 at 07:00, 7%.

Safest bet that day DL 2133 FLL 07:00 → LGA 09:57 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 1172 FLL 18:35 → LGA 21:35 · 64% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Weather 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2133 Delta Flight history →	FLL 07:00	LGA 09:57	7%	2%	0.7%	94%
B6 1072 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:10	LGA 09:03	11%	3%	0.9%	92%
B6 172 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:09	LGA 09:00	14%	4%	0.9%	83%
DL 2465 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:29	LGA 14:24	26%	6%	0.8%	70%
DL 701 Delta Flight history →	FLL 19:59	LGA 23:02	26%	6%	0.8%	35%
B6 872 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 09:40	LGA 12:33	26%	6%	0.8%	74%
DL 1181 Delta Flight history →	FLL 15:05	LGA 18:19	28%	8%	0.8%	68%
AA 2720 American	FLL 12:07	LGA 15:15	37%	8%	1.9%	no record
AA 2490 American Flight history →	FLL 12:04	LGA 15:04	38%	8%	1.6%	68%
B6 272 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:52	LGA 14:45	46%	16%	0.9%	58%
AA 2808 American Flight history →	FLL 17:49	LGA 20:49	46%	10%	1.8%	33%
B6 572 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:15	LGA 23:14	51%	16%	0.8%	55%
B6 472 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 16:51	LGA 19:50	56%	16%	0.9%	74%worse than usual
B6 1172 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:35	LGA 21:35	64%	21%	0.8%	54%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON