Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Hobby, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Long Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	FLL 05:00 → HOU 06:30WN 1861	1h 40m Houston	HOU 08:10 → LGB 09:38WN 4690	7h 38m	96%	86%
Southwest Details →	FLL 10:45 → BNA 12:00WN 4029	2h 35m Nashville	BNA 14:35 → LGB 16:50WN 1427	9h 05m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	FLL 09:25 → AUS 11:15WN 1848	2h 00m Austin	AUS 13:15 → LGB 14:10WN 4915	7h 45m	98%	77%
Southwest Details →	FLL 08:50 → DEN 11:00WN 4264	2h 25m Denver	DEN 13:25 → LGB 14:50WN 4259	9h 00m	98%	76%
Southwest Details →	FLL 13:00 → DAL 14:50WN 4819	4h 00m Dallas	DAL 18:50 → LGB 20:04WN 198	10h 04m	100%	76%
Southwest Details →	FLL 12:35 → BNA 13:50WN 1850	1h 36m Nashville	BNA 15:26 → LGB 17:50WN 1486	8h 15m	94%	70%
Southwest Details →	FLL 10:15 → MDW 12:15WN 1869	1h 00m Chicago	MDW 13:15 → LGB 15:30WN 4413	8h 15m	89%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON