Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1540 FLL 05:15 → MCI 07:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest G4 483 FLL 06:00 → MCI 08:18 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1540 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 05:15	MCI 07:15	4%	1%	0.1%	92%
WN 2679 Southwest	FLL 07:25	MCI 09:44	8%	1%	0.4%	no record
G4 483 Allegiant	FLL 06:00	MCI 08:18	13%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON