Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4824 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 4824 FLL 06:10 → MCO 07:15 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 1948 FLL 20:59 → MCO 22:09 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4824 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 06:10	MCO 07:15	3%	1%	0.8%	96%
WN 1924 Southwest	FLL 07:11	MCO 08:18	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
B6 2548 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 10:00	MCO 11:08	14%	5%	0.9%	76%
B6 1948 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	MCO 22:09	33%	16%	1.9%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON