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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via St Louis, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 673 Delta Flight history → FLL 14:47 MSP 17:39 11% 3% 0.5% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → FLL 05:55 → MDW 07:55WN 1866 2h 00m Chicago MDW 09:55 → MSP 11:26WN 2066 6h 31m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 05:40 → STL 07:20WN 1874 1h 10m St Louis STL 08:30 → MSP 10:11WN 286 5h 31m 97% 91%
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:40 → IAD 11:14UA 2169 2h 06m Dulles IAD 13:20 → MSP 15:11UA 3576 · flown by Republic 7h 31m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → FLL 07:06 → JFK 10:00DL 2165 1h 35m New York JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414 7h 44m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631 3h 24m Detroit DTW 12:20 → MSP 13:10DL 2697 8h 10m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 08:44 → MSP 10:18DL 2960 5h 55m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901 8h 17m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 06:25 → BWI 08:55WN 396 1h 30m Baltimore BWI 10:25 → MSP 12:11WN 2545 6h 46m 95% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → FLL 10:04 → EWR 13:09UA 2387 46m Newark EWR 13:55 → MSP 15:55UA 1068 6h 51m 68% 55%
UnitedDetails → FLL 17:48 → EWR 20:59UA 279 56m Newark EWR 21:55 → MSP 23:59UA 1331 7h 11m 72% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON