Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1634 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 1634 FLL 06:25 → MSY 07:32 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2823 FLL 21:16 → MSY 22:24 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1634 Southwest	FLL 06:25	MSY 07:32	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1871 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 14:20	MSY 15:25	20%	5%	0.7%	71%
B6 1823 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 14:50	MSY 15:57	31%	12%	0.9%	55%
B6 2823 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:16	MSY 22:24	32%	14%	0.9%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON