tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Hobby, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → FLL 05:00 → HOU 06:30WN 1861 1h 15m Houston HOU 07:45 → ONT 08:55WN 4391 6h 55m 97% 87%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 05:55 → MDW 07:55WN 1866 3h 50m Chicago MDW 11:45 → ONT 13:50WN 2846 10h 55m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:18UA 1311 1h 07m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 47m 96% 83%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 08:50 → DEN 11:00WN 4264 2h 00m Denver DEN 13:00 → ONT 14:26WN 2947 8h 36m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → FLL 08:20 → SEA 11:49DL 356 2h 41m Seattle SEA 14:30 → ONT 17:21DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest 12h 01m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 8h 15m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → FLL 18:40 → SLC 21:38DL 745 1h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 8h 08m 92% 79%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 09:35 → BNA 10:50WN 4638 3h 05m Nashville BNA 13:55 → ONT 16:00WN 855 9h 25m 99% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → FLL 16:45 → BWI 19:20WN 4670 50m Baltimore BWI 20:10 → ONT 22:25WN 200 8h 40m 73% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON