Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2809 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 2809 FLL 06:52 → ORD 09:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 863 FLL 21:05 → ORD 23:44 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2809 United	FLL 06:52	ORD 09:15	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 752 United Flight history →	FLL 07:02	ORD 09:30	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 1755 United Flight history →	FLL 12:26	ORD 14:55	8%	3%	0.6%	87%
AA 3169 American	FLL 06:59	ORD 09:20	9%	3%	1.2%	no record
UA 651 United Flight history →	FLL 19:37	ORD 22:20	11%	4%	0.6%	66%
UA 403 United Flight history →	FLL 16:20	ORD 19:00	14%	4%	0.6%	52%
AA 1851 American Flight history →	FLL 12:15	ORD 14:46	15%	4%	1.2%	73%
F9 2206 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 09:43	ORD 12:15	18%	6%	0.7%	69%
B6 663 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:00	ORD 13:39	25%	8%	0.7%	71%
AA 2440 American Flight history →	FLL 17:33	ORD 20:16	26%	6%	1.2%	32%
B6 863 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:05	ORD 23:44	27%	12%	0.7%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON