Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 444 at 06:18 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 444 FLL 06:18 → PHL 09:06 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 2932 FLL 13:09 → PHL 16:05 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 444 American Flight history →	FLL 06:18	PHL 09:06	7%	2%	1.8%	95%
AA 794 American Flight history →	FLL 07:10	PHL 10:01	7%	3%	1.3%	100%
AA 2089 American Flight history →	FLL 06:50	PHL 09:47	9%	3%	1.6%	70%
AA 1944 American	FLL 07:56	PHL 10:53	10%	3%	1.6%	no record
AA 1333 American Flight history →	FLL 10:47	PHL 13:47	11%	5%	1.6%	87%
AA 1850 American Flight history →	FLL 10:40	PHL 13:31	12%	4%	1.9%	91%
AA 1478 American	FLL 14:44	PHL 17:38	19%	6%	1.9%	no record
B6 2276 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 10:11	PHL 13:08	19%	7%	0.7%	74%
AA 695 American Flight history →	FLL 14:39	PHL 17:35	19%	7%	1.3%	57%
AA 1855 American Flight history →	FLL 15:57	PHL 18:53	20%	7%	1.6%	52%
AA 3247 American Flight history →	FLL 20:01	PHL 22:53	22%	8%	1.3%	57%
AA 2524 American	FLL 16:26	PHL 19:23	22%	7%	1.9%	no record
B6 376 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	PHL 23:53	30%	13%	0.7%	68%
B6 746 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 19:36	PHL 22:29	33%	16%	0.7%	48%
F9 4440 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 21:45	PHL 00:39	37%	16%	1.2%	51%
F9 2932 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 13:09	PHL 16:05	39%	15%	0.9%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON