Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: B6 1246 at 09:09 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day


B6 1246 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 09:09	RIC 11:27	17%	6%	0.5%	75%
B6 1146 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	RIC 23:18	28%	16%	0.7%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	FLL 07:02 → ORD 09:30UA 752	1h 05m Chicago	ORD 10:35 → RIC 13:57UA 3704 · flown by Republic	6h 55m	96%	90%
United Details →	FLL 08:40 → IAD 11:14UA 2169	1h 46m Dulles	IAD 13:00 → RIC 14:01UA 4535 · flown by GoJet	5h 21m	99%	88%
American Details →	FLL 07:10 → PHL 10:01AA 794	3h 11m Philadelphia	PHL 13:12 → RIC 14:35AA 5843 · flown by Piedmont	7h 25m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631	1h 13m Detroit	DTW 10:09 → RIC 11:47DL 3166	5h 47m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214	6h 27m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	FLL 07:40 → ATL 09:33DL 1326	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → RIC 14:05DL 1437	6h 25m	97%	84%
United Details →	FLL 09:00 → IAH 10:45UA 722	1h 18m Houston	IAH 12:03 → RIC 16:11UA 4057 · flown by Mesa	7h 11m	93%	81%
Delta Details →	FLL 12:08 → ATL 14:00DL 1271	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 17:12 → RIC 18:53DL 1348	6h 45m	99%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	FLL 17:33 → ORD 20:16AA 2440	1h 06m Chicago	ORD 21:22 → RIC 00:39 +1AA 4698 · flown by Republic	7h 06m	74%	66%
Delta Details →	FLL 12:08 → ATL 14:00DL 1271	46m Atlanta	ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214	4h 15m	67%	58%
Delta Details →	FLL 11:29 → LGA 14:24DL 2465	1h 05m New York	LGA 15:29 → RIC 17:19DL 5516 · flown by Endeavor	5h 50m	73%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON