Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1540 at 08:03 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 1540 FLL 08:03 → SFO 11:01 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 277 FLL 20:55 → SFO 23:51 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1540 United Flight history →	FLL 08:03	SFO 11:01	7%	3%	0.5%	94%
UA 1513 United	FLL 07:56	SFO 10:53	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
B6 577 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:00	SFO 08:54	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
B6 377 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 07:00	SFO 09:48	13%	4%	0.6%	88%
B6 277 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	SFO 23:51	19%	10%	0.6%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	7h 57m	97%	85%
Southwest Details →	FLL 05:40 → STL 07:20WN 1874	55m St Louis	STL 08:15 → SFO 10:20WN 3982	7h 40m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672	8h 00m	96%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON