Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3092 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 3–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 3092 FLL 05:50 → STL 07:45 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1875 FLL 19:10 → STL 21:00 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3092 Southwest	FLL 05:50	STL 07:45	3%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 1874 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 05:40	STL 07:20	3%	1%	0.1%	97%
WN 1875 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 19:10	STL 21:00	21%	5%	0.4%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON