Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 429 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 429 FLL 05:30 → TPA 06:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 1905 FLL 19:45 → TPA 20:57 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 429 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 05:30	TPA 06:35	4%	1%	0.7%	94%
WN 408 Southwest	FLL 09:21	TPA 10:29	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
B6 1005 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 15:35	TPA 16:46	30%	13%	1.3%	62%
B6 1905 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 19:45	TPA 20:57	33%	17%	2.1%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON