tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:00 pm at Sioux Falls); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:30, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Atlanta on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Sioux Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FSD 13:30 → MSP 14:44DL 3534 · flown by SkyWest 3h 53m Minneapolis MSP 18:37 → ATL 22:28DL 1026 7h 58m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → FSD 16:26 → MSP 17:37DL 3538 · flown by SkyWest 2h 12m Minneapolis MSP 19:49 → ATL 23:44DL 1032 6h 18m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → FSD 13:18 → DEN 14:10UA 5492 · flown by SkyWest 3h 40m Denver DEN 17:50 → ATL 22:57UA 248 8h 39m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → FSD 14:15 → PHX 15:10AA 4991 · flown by SkyWest 1h 01m Phoenix PHX 16:11 → ATL 22:50AA 2391 7h 35m 82% 51%
AmericanDetails → FSD 17:50 → DFW 20:00AA 3820 · flown by Envoy 1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:10 → ATL 00:19 +1AA 2749 5h 29m 83% 51%
AmericanDetails → FSD 12:40 → DFW 15:00AA 6194 · flown by SkyWest 2h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:22 → ATL 20:43AA 3212 7h 03m 97% 50%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → FSD 12:55 → DFW 15:15AA 2872 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:03 → ATL 19:23AA 2403 5h 28m 59% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON