Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: F9 2107 at 20:08, 28%.

Safest bet today F9 2107 FSD 20:08 → DEN 21:01 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest OO 5296 FSD 18:49 → DEN 19:30 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Weather 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


F9 2107 Frontier Flight history →	FSD 20:08	DEN 21:01	28%	11%	1.0%	71%
UA 5848 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 17:05	DEN 18:13	31%	11%	0.3%	68%
OO 5296 SkyWest	FSD 18:49	DEN 19:30	33%	9%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON