Today: DL 1435 at 08:22 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–23%.

Safest bet today DL 1435 FSD 08:22 → MSP 09:28 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3890 FSD 16:26 → MSP 17:33 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1435 Delta	FSD 08:22	MSP 09:28	8%	2%	0.1%	no record
DL 1006 Delta Flight history →	FSD 08:23	MSP 09:30	8%	2%	0.1%	90%
DL 3561 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 10:56	MSP 12:03	8%	3%	0.2%	98%
DL 3534 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 13:30	MSP 14:44	9%	4%	0.2%	83%
OO 3888 SkyWest	FSD 11:00	MSP 12:07	10%	4%	0.2%	no record
OO 3763 SkyWest	FSD 13:03	MSP 14:10	11%	4%	0.2%	no record
DL 3538 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 16:26	MSP 17:37	21%	4%	0.2%	76%
OO 3890 SkyWest	FSD 16:26	MSP 17:33	23%	4%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON