Today: MQ 3890 at 14:54 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26%.

Safest bet today MQ 3890 FSD 14:54 → ORD 16:43 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4992 FSD 19:49 → ORD 21:30 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


MQ 3890 Envoy	FSD 14:54	ORD 16:43	14%	4%	0.3%	no record
OO 5353 SkyWest	FSD 18:35	ORD 20:21	26%	10%	0.6%	no record
OO 5320 SkyWest	FSD 15:06	ORD 16:52	26%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 4990 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 16:44	ORD 18:49	26%	11%	0.6%	61%
OO 4992 SkyWest	FSD 19:49	ORD 21:30	26%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON