Today: WN 1333 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–13%.

Safest bet today WN 1333 GEG 06:00 → DEN 09:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 1880 GEG 14:15 → DEN 17:30 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1333 Southwest Flight history →	GEG 06:00	DEN 09:10	5%	1%	0.2%	98%
UA 1234 United Flight history →	GEG 05:00	DEN 08:20	5%	2%	0.2%	96%
WN 1935 Southwest	GEG 06:32	DEN 09:48	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
OO 5587 SkyWest	GEG 16:14	DEN 19:54	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 859 Southwest Flight history →	GEG 11:50	DEN 15:05	13%	2%	0.2%	79%
UA 2786 United Flight history →	GEG 16:18	DEN 19:43	13%	4%	0.4%	71%
UA 1255 United Flight history →	GEG 13:41	DEN 16:57	21%	4%	0.2%	80%
WN 4301 Southwest	GEG 14:45	DEN 18:03	22%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 1880 Southwest Flight history →	GEG 14:15	DEN 17:30	24%	3%	0.1%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON