Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 14% on a calm day. Safest: AS 3349 at 11:51, 21%.

Safest bet today AS 3349 GEG 11:51 → LAX 14:46 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 2164 GEG 14:51 → LAX 17:43 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Weather 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 3349 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 11:51	LAX 14:46	21%	7%	0.3%	93%worse than usual
DL 3794 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 16:14	LAX 19:02	26%	8%	0.3%	88%worse than usual
DL 3799 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 16:16	LAX 19:10	26%	7%	0.3%	85%worse than usual
AS 2164 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	GEG 14:51	LAX 17:43	33%	8%	0.7%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON