Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:09 am at Spokane)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 2248 Southwest	GEG 11:25	OAK 13:41	7%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 441 Southwest Flight history →	GEG 12:20	OAK 14:30	11%	2%	0.1%	71%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251	3h 41m Portland	PDX 17:33 → OAK 19:23AS 2082 · flown by Horizon	6h 41m	100%	98%
Delta Details →	GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503	2h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	6h 40m	99%	90%
Alaska Details →	GEG 15:16 → PDX 16:32AS 3202 · flown by SkyWest	3h 22m Portland	PDX 19:54 → OAK 21:41AS 2036 · flown by Horizon	6h 25m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	GEG 09:50 → SLC 12:41DL 4444 · flown by SkyWest	2h 39m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:20 → OAK 16:21DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	6h 31m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	GEG 12:55 → SAN 15:35WN 1887	3h 24m San Diego	SAN 18:59 → OAK 20:37WN 581	7h 42m	100%	74%
Southwest Details →	GEG 17:10 → LAS 19:35WN 1951	2h 46m Las Vegas	LAS 22:21 → OAK 00:00 +1WN 4605	6h 50m	97%	73%
Alaska Details →	GEG 06:13 → SEA 07:24AS 279	1h 46m Seattle	SEA 09:10 → OAK 11:18AS 533	5h 05m	100%	72%
Southwest Details →	GEG 18:10 → PHX 20:45WN 1885	1h 55m Phoenix	PHX 22:40 → OAK 00:45 +1WN 4951	6h 35m	94%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	GEG 15:16 → PDX 16:32AS 3202 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Portland	PDX 17:33 → OAK 19:23AS 2082 · flown by Horizon	4h 07m	74%	72%
Alaska Details →	GEG 14:39 → SEA 15:49AS 2119 · flown by Horizon	57m Seattle	SEA 16:46 → OAK 18:53AS 1328	4h 14m	62%	37%
Alaska Details →	GEG 07:15 → SEA 08:23AS 360	47m Seattle	SEA 09:10 → OAK 11:18AS 533	4h 03m	8%	6%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON