Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 5623 at 11:09 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 5623 GEG 11:09 → ORD 17:00 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest AA 814 GEG 14:29 → ORD 20:32 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5623 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 11:09	ORD 17:00	17%	6%	0.6%	67%
AA 677 American Flight history →	GEG 14:00	ORD 19:37	30%	5%	1.0%	53%
AA 814 American Flight history →	GEG 14:29	ORD 20:32	33%	5%	1.0%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON