Today: AS 661 at 08:24 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–26%.

Safest bet today AS 661 GEG 08:24 → PDX 09:41 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3202 GEG 15:16 → PDX 16:32 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 17% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AS 661 Alaska	GEG 08:24	PDX 09:41	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 251 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 12:42	PDX 13:52	14%	3%	0.6%	87%
AS 3201 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 08:31	PDX 09:46	14%	4%	0.2%	98%worse than usual
AS 633 Alaska	GEG 15:37	PDX 16:54	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 3406 SkyWest	GEG 19:34	PDX 20:57	25%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 3202 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 15:16	PDX 16:32	26%	7%	0.2%	17%
AS 2407 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 19:41	PDX 20:50	22%	6%	1.4%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON