Today: WN 4361 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–23%.

Safest bet today WN 4361 GEG 06:11 → PHX 08:18 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1885 GEG 18:10 → PHX 20:45 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


WN 4361 Southwest	GEG 06:11	PHX 08:18	7%	1%	0.1%	no record
AA 1789 American Flight history →	GEG 06:30	PHX 09:14	9%	4%	0.2%	93%
AA 2225 American	GEG 06:34	PHX 09:27	10%	5%	0.2%	no record
AA 1888 American Flight history →	GEG 15:00	PHX 17:37	20%	8%	0.1%	72%
AA 540 American Flight history →	GEG 14:34	PHX 17:21	21%	8%	0.1%	85%
WN 1885 Southwest Flight history →	GEG 18:10	PHX 20:45	23%	6%	0.5%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON