tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:01 am at Spokane); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 44%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1887 at 12:55, 44%.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1887 Southwest Flight history → GEG 12:55 SAN 15:35 44% 14% 0.3% 57%
WN 833 Southwest GEG 12:15 SAN 15:07 45% 11% 0.3% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503 3h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 22:55 → SAN 23:50DL 1202 6h 40m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → GEG 16:16 → LAX 19:10DL 3799 · flown by SkyWest 3h 35m Los Angeles LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42DL 3746 · flown by SkyWest 7h 26m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → GEG 12:35 → MSP 17:29DL 1853 1h 21m Minneapolis MSP 18:50 → SAN 20:36DL 2145 8h 01m 91% 68%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251 3h 48m Portland PDX 17:40 → SAN 20:18AS 369 7h 36m 100% 66%
SouthwestDetails → GEG 18:10 → PHX 20:45WN 1885 2h 05m Phoenix PHX 22:50 → SAN 00:12 +1WN 2921 6h 02m 95% 63%
SouthwestDetails → GEG 11:50 → DEN 15:05WN 859 1h 50m Denver DEN 16:55 → SAN 18:20WN 4160 6h 30m 97% 61%
UnitedDetails → GEG 16:18 → DEN 19:43UA 2786 1h 21m Denver DEN 21:04 → SAN 22:43UA 2395 6h 25m 87% 58%
UnitedDetails → GEG 13:41 → DEN 16:57UA 1255 2h 23m Denver DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540 7h 05m 93% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → GEG 19:07 → SFO 21:29UA 6042 · flown by SkyWest 1h 13m San Francisco SFO 22:42 → SAN 00:31 +1UA 2142 5h 24m 71% 52%
DeltaDetails → GEG 13:00 → SEA 14:25DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest 50m Seattle SEA 15:15 → SAN 18:05DL 2613 5h 05m 48% 28%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 17:44 → SEA 19:03AS 3306 · flown by SkyWest 1h 04m Seattle SEA 20:07 → SAN 22:54AS 254 5h 10m 60% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON