Today: UA 5323 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet today UA 5323 GEG 06:00 → SFO 08:28 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 5217 GEG 12:37 → SFO 15:01 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5323 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 06:00	SFO 08:28	9%	4%	0.2%	86%
OO 5471 SkyWest	GEG 06:06	SFO 08:47	9%	4%	0.3%	no record
AS 3070 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 16:21	SFO 18:45	19%	8%	0.6%	86%
UA 6042 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 19:07	SFO 21:29	23%	9%	0.6%	5%
UA 5217 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 12:37	SFO 15:01	25%	6%	0.2%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON