Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:50 am at Spokane); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: WN 443 at 13:30, 24%.

Nonstops today


WN 443 Southwest Flight history →	GEG 13:30	SJC 15:40	24%	3%	0.2%	73%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503	2h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → SJC 23:39DL 1272	6h 29m	97%	78%
Southwest Details →	GEG 17:10 → LAS 19:35WN 1951	2h 50m Las Vegas	LAS 22:25 → SJC 00:04 +1WN 2419	6h 54m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	GEG 13:00 → SEA 14:25DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest	3h 25m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → SJC 20:14DL 4100 · flown by SkyWest	7h 14m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	GEG 13:30 → SLC 16:14DL 1452	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → SJC 18:26DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest	4h 56m	85%	69%
Delta Details →	GEG 16:02 → SEA 17:18DL 4145 · flown by SkyWest	3h 12m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → SJC 22:48DL 3956 · flown by SkyWest	6h 46m	98%	67%
Delta Details →	GEG 12:35 → MSP 17:29DL 1853	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 18:30 → SJC 20:35DL 2087	8h 00m	83%	66%
Delta Details →	GEG 16:16 → LAX 19:10DL 3799 · flown by SkyWest	1h 41m Los Angeles	LAX 20:51 → SJC 22:12DL 1420	5h 56m	97%	65%
United Details →	GEG 13:41 → DEN 16:57UA 1255	2h 33m Denver	DEN 19:30 → SJC 21:09UA 2745	7h 28m	94%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	GEG 19:08 → SLC 21:55DL 1024	50m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → SJC 23:39DL 1272	4h 31m	49%	39%
Alaska Details →	GEG 13:26 → SEA 14:40AS 293	1h 10m Seattle	SEA 15:50 → SJC 18:01AS 657	4h 35m	49%	21%
Alaska Details →	GEG 13:37 → SEA 14:45AS 455	57m Seattle	SEA 15:42 → SJC 17:53AS 319	4h 16m	23%	10%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON