Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:52 am at Spokane); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 636 Southwest	GEG 18:15	SMF 20:17	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1890 Southwest Flight history →	GEG 17:30	SMF 19:25	18%	4%	0.5%	62%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	GEG 08:31 → PDX 09:46AS 3201 · flown by SkyWest	1h 14m Portland	PDX 11:00 → SMF 12:33AS 2399 · flown by Horizon	4h 02m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503	3h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582	6h 34m	99%	89%
Alaska Details →	GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251	3h 56m Portland	PDX 17:48 → SMF 19:28AS 793	6h 46m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	GEG 16:01 → SEA 17:17DL 4145 · flown by SkyWest	3h 08m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → SMF 22:31DL 4131 · flown by SkyWest	6h 30m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	GEG 16:16 → LAX 19:10DL 3799 · flown by SkyWest	2h 25m Los Angeles	LAX 21:35 → SMF 23:07DL 4083 · flown by SkyWest	6h 51m	98%	82%
Southwest Details →	GEG 06:00 → DEN 09:10WN 1333	1h 10m Denver	DEN 10:20 → SMF 11:55WN 1740	5h 55m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	GEG 09:50 → SLC 12:41DL 4444 · flown by SkyWest	2h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:25 → SMF 16:07DL 1342	6h 17m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	GEG 17:10 → LAS 19:35WN 1951	3h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 22:40 → SMF 00:20 +1WN 4226	7h 10m	99%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	GEG 06:13 → SEA 07:24AS 279	53m Seattle	SEA 08:17 → SMF 10:11AS 677	3h 58m	63%	47%
Alaska Details →	GEG 19:45 → SEA 20:59AS 371	56m Seattle	SEA 21:55 → SMF 23:48AS 722	4h 03m	60%	44%
Alaska Details →	GEG 17:44 → SEA 19:03AS 3306 · flown by SkyWest	46m Seattle	SEA 19:49 → SMF 21:42AS 681	3h 58m	47%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON