Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:24 am at Grand Junction); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 13–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OO 4773 GJT 09:35 → DEN 11:09 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4635 GJT 15:15 → DEN 16:45 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


OO 4773 SkyWest	GJT 09:35	DEN 11:09	13%	6%	0.3%	no record
UA 4690 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GJT 09:28	DEN 10:57	13%	5%	0.4%	92%
UA 4709 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GJT 11:19	DEN 12:45	15%	5%	0.2%	84%
UA 1788 United Flight history →	GJT 13:33	DEN 14:55	18%	4%	0.2%	83%
UA 5755 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GJT 18:10	DEN 19:39	22%	6%	0.4%	65%
UA 4635 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GJT 15:15	DEN 16:45	23%	6%	0.3%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON