Today: AA 6414 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–26%.

Safest bet today AA 6414 GJT 06:26 → DFW 09:50 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest OO 6235 GJT 11:14 → DFW 14:33 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6414 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GJT 06:26	DFW 09:50	12%	10%	0.7%	89%
OO 6487 SkyWest	GJT 07:13	DFW 10:35	14%	11%	0.8%	no record
MQ 4122 Envoy	GJT 17:01	DFW 20:14	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4123 Envoy	GJT 13:12	DFW 16:30	23%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 4996 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GJT 16:55	DFW 20:19	26%	13%	0.7%	54%
AA 4918 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GJT 10:56	DFW 14:17	26%	12%	0.9%	76%
OO 6235 SkyWest	GJT 11:14	DFW 14:33	26%	13%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON