Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:42 pm at Grand Rapids); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 2058 at 18:19, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 2058 Delta Flight history →	GRR 18:19	ATL 20:34	9%	2%	0.6%	86%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GRR 19:41 → DTW 20:45DL 5800 · flown by Republic	2h 06m Detroit	DTW 22:51 → ATL 00:54 +1DL 9963	5h 13m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	GRR 16:10 → MSP 16:51DL 3865 · flown by SkyWest	2h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 19:49 → ATL 23:44DL 1032	7h 34m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	GRR 18:00 → MDW 18:05WN 1539	2h 45m Chicago	MDW 20:50 → ATL 23:58WN 2412	5h 58m	98%	75%
United Details →	GRR 18:25 → ORD 18:48UA 5516 · flown by SkyWest	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 20:09 → ATL 23:30UA 2770	5h 05m	80%	67%
American Details →	GRR 17:36 → ORD 18:00AA 3715 · flown by Envoy	1h 32m Chicago	ORD 19:32 → ATL 22:43AA 2472	5h 07m	90%	65%
American Details →	GRR 17:29 → CLT 19:19AA 1685	3h 34m Charlotte	CLT 22:53 → ATL 00:09 +1AA 1656	6h 40m	100%	60%
United Details →	GRR 16:44 → EWR 18:46UA 3501 · flown by Republic	1h 06m Newark	EWR 19:52 → ATL 22:22UA 1287	5h 38m	90%	58%
American Details →	GRR 17:24 → DFW 19:14AA 310	1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → ATL 00:19 +1AA 2749	6h 55m	87%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	GRR 17:35 → CLT 19:37AA 1891	50m Charlotte	CLT 20:27 → ATL 21:48AA 5498 · flown by PSA	4h 13m	73%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON