Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:02 pm at Grand Rapids); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 1891 American Flight history →	GRR 17:35	CLT 19:37	24%	7%	0.4%	58%
AA 1685 American Flight history →	GRR 17:29	CLT 19:19	25%	7%	0.4%	81%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GRR 16:10 → MSP 16:51DL 3865 · flown by SkyWest	3h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929	7h 34m	100%	83%
American Details →	GRR 17:36 → ORD 18:00AA 3715 · flown by Envoy	2h 54m Chicago	ORD 20:54 → CLT 23:59AA 2976	6h 23m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	GRR 18:19 → ATL 20:34DL 2058	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	5h 39m	97%	76%
Southwest Details →	GRR 18:00 → MDW 18:05WN 1539	50m Chicago	MDW 18:55 → CLT 21:55WN 4194	3h 55m	81%	58%
American Details →	GRR 17:24 → DFW 19:14AA 310	2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:25 → CLT 00:59 +1AA 2409	7h 35m	88%	55%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	GRR 17:36 → ORD 18:00AA 3715 · flown by Envoy	47m Chicago	ORD 18:47 → CLT 21:59AA 689	4h 23m	70%	54%
American Details →	GRR 17:24 → DFW 19:14AA 310	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:10 → CLT 23:39AA 460	6h 15m	65%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON