Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:18 pm at Grand Rapids); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 5039 at 14:41, with a 35% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 5039 American flown by PSA Flight history →	GRR 14:41	DCA 16:40	35%	23%	0.9%	56%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	GRR 17:36 → ORD 18:00AA 3715 · flown by Envoy	3h 04m Chicago	ORD 21:04 → DCA 00:14 +1AA 514	6h 38m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	GRR 16:10 → MSP 16:51DL 3865 · flown by SkyWest	2h 43m Minneapolis	MSP 19:34 → DCA 23:07DL 1897	6h 57m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	GRR 18:00 → MDW 18:05WN 1539	2h 05m Chicago	MDW 20:10 → DCA 23:05WN 1172	5h 05m	97%	76%
American Details →	GRR 14:35 → ORD 14:54AA 3553 · flown by Envoy	3h 01m Chicago	ORD 17:55 → DCA 20:59AA 1787	6h 24m	100%	73%
Delta Details →	GRR 18:19 → ATL 20:34DL 2058	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	5h 33m	94%	67%
American Details →	GRR 17:29 → CLT 19:18AA 1685	3h 09m Charlotte	CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269	6h 24m	100%	63%
Delta Details →	GRR 14:37 → DTW 15:37DL 5390 · flown by Endeavor	1h 41m Detroit	DTW 17:18 → DCA 18:59DL 2030	4h 22m	95%	59%
Delta Details →	GRR 17:53 → LGA 19:51DL 5104 · flown by Endeavor	1h 29m New York	LGA 21:20 → DCA 22:58DL 1825	5h 05m	79%	50%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	GRR 18:25 → ORD 18:48UA 5516 · flown by SkyWest	57m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160	4h 29m	65%	51%
American Details →	GRR 17:24 → DFW 19:14AA 310	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077	6h 35m	49%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON