Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:19 pm at Grand Rapids); 5 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 19:18, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Grand Rapids). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GRR 19:18 → MSP 19:57DL 1555	2h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 22:15 → DEN 23:27DL 1705	6h 09m	94%	82%
United Details →	GRR 18:25 → ORD 18:48UA 5516 · flown by SkyWest	3h 02m Chicago	ORD 21:50 → DEN 23:48UA 377	7h 23m	96%	77%
American Details →	GRR 19:54 → ORD 20:37AA 4729 · flown by Republic	1h 58m Chicago	ORD 22:35 → DEN 00:17 +1AA 1387	6h 23m	97%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON