Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:58 pm at Grand Rapids); 6 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 5800 GRR 19:41 → DTW 20:45 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest 9E 5218 GRR 19:20 → DTW 19:51 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 5800 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	GRR 19:41	DTW 20:45	10%	4%	0.7%	93%
YX 5847 Republic	GRR 19:35	DTW 20:41	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
9E 5218 Endeavor	GRR 19:20	DTW 19:51	17%	6%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON