Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:27 pm at Grand Rapids); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 3625 United flown by Republic Flight history →	GRR 16:55	EWR 18:56	11%	4%	1.0%	70%
UA 3501 United flown by Republic Flight history →	GRR 16:44	EWR 18:46	14%	6%	1.8%	82%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	GRR 18:25 → ORD 18:48UA 5516 · flown by SkyWest	2h 42m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209	6h 28m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	GRR 19:41 → DTW 20:45DL 5800 · flown by Republic	55m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → EWR 23:25DL 2609	3h 44m	89%	72%
American Details →	GRR 17:36 → ORD 18:00AA 3715 · flown by Envoy	2h 09m Chicago	ORD 20:09 → EWR 23:30AA 2549	5h 54m	93%	68%
Delta Details →	GRR 18:19 → ATL 20:34DL 2058	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	6h 39m	97%	67%
Frontier Details →	GRR 17:35 → MCO 20:32F9 1308	1h 43m Orlando	MCO 22:15 → EWR 01:09 +1F9 2512	7h 34m	89%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	GRR 17:29 → CLT 19:18AA 1685	48m Charlotte	CLT 20:06 → EWR 22:12AA 2794	4h 43m	54%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON