Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:03 pm at Grand Rapids); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 1005 GRR 13:20 → MDW 13:31 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1539 GRR 18:00 → MDW 18:05 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1005 Southwest	GRR 13:20	MDW 13:31	10%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 1949 Southwest	GRR 17:37	MDW 17:48	14%	3%	0.1%	no record
WN 1539 Southwest Flight history →	GRR 18:00	MDW 18:05	14%	3%	0.2%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON