Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:33 pm at Grand Rapids); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 17–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 1555 GRR 19:18 → MSP 19:57 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest DL 3865 GRR 16:10 → MSP 16:51 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1555 Delta Flight history →	GRR 19:18	MSP 19:57	17%	4%	0.3%	78%
DL 1245 Delta	GRR 15:59	MSP 16:36	18%	4%	0.3%	no record
DL 3865 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GRR 16:10	MSP 16:51	22%	6%	0.4%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON