Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:15 pm at Grand Rapids); 14 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Today: AA 4729 at 19:54 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–33%.

Safest bet today AA 4729 GRR 19:54 → ORD 20:37 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest UA 2783 GRR 15:40 → ORD 15:46 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 14 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4729 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GRR 19:54	ORD 20:37	16%	4%	0.4%	67%
YX 4648 Republic	GRR 14:26	ORD 14:39	18%	3%	0.2%	no record
AA 3553 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GRR 14:35	ORD 14:54	21%	3%	0.5%	79%
OO 6322 SkyWest	GRR 21:15	ORD 21:30	24%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 3715 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GRR 17:36	ORD 18:00	25%	4%	0.5%	75%
OO 4912 SkyWest	GRR 16:08	ORD 16:23	30%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 5516 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GRR 18:25	ORD 18:48	31%	7%	0.7%	51%
UA 2783 United	GRR 15:40	ORD 15:46	33%	5%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON