Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:58 pm at Grand Rapids); 6 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 5274 at 18:59, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 5274 American flown by PSA Flight history →	GRR 18:59	PHL 20:54	21%	8%	2.3%	47%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GRR 19:41 → DTW 20:45DL 5800 · flown by Republic	50m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402	3h 35m	87%	69%
American Details →	GRR 19:54 → ORD 20:37AA 4729 · flown by Republic	1h 08m Chicago	ORD 21:45 → PHL 00:59 +1AA 490	5h 05m	86%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON