Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:45 pm at Greensboro); 7 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 1604 Delta Flight history →	GSO 19:59	ATL 21:33	12%	4%	0.6%	81%
DL 3050 Delta Flight history →	GSO 18:35	ATL 20:09	14%	4%	0.6%	74%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GSO 19:13 → DTW 20:51DL 5514 · flown by Endeavor	2h 00m Detroit	DTW 22:51 → ATL 00:54 +1DL 9963	5h 41m	92%	80%
American Details →	GSO 19:37 → MIA 21:44AA 4082 · flown by Envoy	1h 10m Miami	MIA 22:54 → ATL 00:56 +1AA 1045	5h 19m	86%	61%
American Details →	GSO 18:39 → CLT 19:45AA 1895	3h 08m Charlotte	CLT 22:53 → ATL 00:08 +1AA 1656	5h 29m	94%	58%
American Details →	GSO 17:29 → PHL 19:05AA 5518 · flown by PSA	2h 53m Philadelphia	PHL 21:58 → ATL 00:15 +1AA 443	6h 46m	96%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON