Today looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 20–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today MQ 4280 GSO 19:27 → CLT 20:17 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2126 GSO 19:50 → CLT 20:53 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


MQ 4280 Envoy	GSO 19:27	CLT 20:17	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 5058 American flown by PSA Flight history →	GSO 16:13	CLT 17:08	20%	4%	0.7%	93%worse than usual
OH 5217 PSA	GSO 18:35	CLT 19:30	21%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 943 American Flight history →	GSO 14:46	CLT 15:49	23%	9%	0.5%	76%
AA 1895 American Flight history →	GSO 18:39	CLT 19:45	26%	12%	0.6%	62%
AA 2126 American Flight history →	GSO 19:50	CLT 20:53	30%	14%	1.8%	66%
AA 5793 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 09:00	CLT 10:21	8%	1%	0.0%	92%
AA 5796 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 12:42	CLT 13:49	10%	4%	0.0%	90%
AA 5797 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 16:11	CLT 17:20	30%	13%	0.0%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON