Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:04 pm at Greensboro); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, OH 5140 at 19:47, with a 37% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


OH 5140 PSA	GSO 19:47	DCA 21:06	37%	19%	1.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GSO 18:35 → ATL 20:09DL 3050	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	5h 17m	92%	67%
Delta Details →	GSO 16:15 → ATL 17:38DL 2539	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 20:55 → DCA 22:48DL 378	6h 33m	97%	67%
American Details →	GSO 18:43 → ORD 20:11AA 3932 · flown by Envoy	53m Chicago	ORD 21:04 → DCA 00:15 +1AA 514	5h 32m	80%	64%
American Details →	GSO 16:31 → CLT 16:59AA 5058 · flown by PSA	1h 23m Charlotte	CLT 18:22 → DCA 20:00AA 2386	3h 29m	100%	55%
American Details →	GSO 18:39 → CLT 19:45AA 1895	2h 42m Charlotte	CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269	5h 14m	90%	52%
Delta Details →	GSO 18:17 → LGA 19:54DL 5439 · flown by Endeavor	1h 26m New York	LGA 21:20 → DCA 22:58DL 1825	4h 41m	76%	44%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	GSO 17:33 → LGA 19:19AA 4574 · flown by Republic	51m New York	LGA 20:10 → DCA 21:46AA 4473 · flown by Republic	4h 13m	68%	47%
American Details →	GSO 18:39 → CLT 19:45AA 1895	1h 04m Charlotte	CLT 20:49 → DCA 22:16AA 2432	3h 37m	65%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON