Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:38 pm at Greensboro); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 5514 at 19:13, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 5514 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	GSO 19:13	DTW 20:51	18%	7%	0.7%	68%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	GSO 14:04 → ORD 15:19AA 3744 · flown by Envoy	2h 52m Chicago	ORD 18:11 → DTW 20:46AA 3500 · flown by Envoy	6h 42m	95%	80%
American Details →	GSO 16:13 → CLT 17:09AA 5058 · flown by PSA	3h 37m Charlotte	CLT 20:46 → DTW 22:34AA 419	6h 21m	100%	71%
American Details →	GSO 17:29 → PHL 19:05AA 5518 · flown by PSA	3h 14m Philadelphia	PHL 22:19 → DTW 00:17 +1AA 5418 · flown by PSA	6h 48m	97%	70%
Delta Details →	GSO 18:35 → ATL 20:09DL 3050	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DTW 00:59 +1DL 2940	6h 24m	97%	66%
Delta Details →	GSO 14:59 → ATL 16:20DL 3060	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	5h 14m	91%	65%
Delta Details →	GSO 16:15 → ATL 17:38DL 2539	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → DTW 22:33DL 1232	6h 18m	96%	65%
American Details →	GSO 18:39 → CLT 19:45AA 1895	3h 06m Charlotte	CLT 22:51 → DTW 00:41 +1AA 370	6h 02m	95%	64%
American Details →	GSO 15:59 → DCA 17:19AA 4514 · flown by Republic	3h 41m Washington	DCA 21:00 → DTW 22:44AA 5597 · flown by PSA	6h 45m	98%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	GSO 14:59 → ATL 16:20DL 3060	51m Atlanta	ATL 17:11 → DTW 19:14DL 2067	4h 15m	72%	49%
American Details →	GSO 18:39 → CLT 19:45AA 1895	1h 01m Charlotte	CLT 20:46 → DTW 22:34AA 419	3h 55m	68%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON