Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:38 pm at Greensboro); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 18:35, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GSO 18:35 → ATL 20:09DL 3050	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	6h 06m	98%	73%
American Details →	GSO 18:39 → CLT 19:45AA 1895	3h 00m Charlotte	CLT 22:45 → IAD 00:10 +1AA 1242	5h 31m	95%	55%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	GSO 19:13 → DTW 20:51DL 5514 · flown by Endeavor	47m Detroit	DTW 21:38 → IAD 23:13DL 3988 · flown by SkyWest	4h 00m	71%	53%
American Details →	GSO 18:39 → CLT 19:45AA 1895	46m Charlotte	CLT 20:31 → IAD 22:05AA 5549 · flown by PSA	3h 26m	57%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON