Today: AA 3932 at 18:43 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–28%.

Safest bet today AA 3932 GSO 18:43 → ORD 20:11 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest G7 4387 GSO 17:51 → ORD 18:50 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3932 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 18:43	ORD 20:11	17%	5%	1.4%	81%
AA 4118 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 19:42	ORD 20:54	18%	5%	1.2%	85%
G7 4387 GoJet	GSO 17:51	ORD 18:50	28%	8%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON