Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 3028 at 05:44 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 3028 GSP 05:44 → ATL 06:43 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest DL 1021 GSP 19:44 → ATL 21:04 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3028 Delta Flight history →	GSP 05:44	ATL 06:43	7%	4%	2.1%	98%
DL 1146 Delta Flight history →	GSP 06:45	ATL 07:48	11%	4%	1.3%	93%
DL 2158 Delta Flight history →	GSP 11:42	ATL 12:45	13%	5%	1.8%	92%
DL 1619 Delta Flight history →	GSP 08:52	ATL 09:58	17%	4%	1.3%	92%
DL 3089 Delta Flight history →	GSP 10:03	ATL 11:04	17%	3%	1.2%	93%
DL 1725 Delta Flight history →	GSP 13:09	ATL 14:14	18%	5%	1.6%	88%
DL 1273 Delta Flight history →	GSP 15:06	ATL 16:13	20%	5%	1.6%	86%
DL 3095 Delta Flight history →	GSP 17:16	ATL 18:22	21%	5%	1.9%	84%
DL 1021 Delta Flight history →	GSP 19:44	ATL 21:04	22%	6%	1.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON