Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1950 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1950 GSP 06:25 → BNA 06:46 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2982 GSP 18:50 → BNA 19:05 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1950 Southwest	GSP 06:25	BNA 06:46	4%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 4705 Southwest Flight history →	GSP 07:05	BNA 07:15	7%	1%	0.2%	93%
WN 2702 Southwest	GSP 13:06	BNA 13:27	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 4535 Southwest Flight history →	GSP 12:55	BNA 13:10	14%	4%	0.5%	64%
WN 1953 Southwest	GSP 20:40	BNA 21:00	22%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 2982 Southwest Flight history →	GSP 18:50	BNA 19:05	22%	6%	0.5%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON