Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1954 GSP 08:25 → BWI 10:15 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4126 GSP 13:55 → BWI 15:25 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1954 Southwest	GSP 08:25	BWI 10:15	5%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 1899 Southwest Flight history →	GSP 08:30	BWI 09:55	7%	2%	0.4%	89%
WN 2872 Southwest	GSP 14:10	BWI 16:00	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4126 Southwest Flight history →	GSP 13:55	BWI 15:25	14%	3%	0.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON