Today: AA 5381 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–39%.

Safest bet today AA 5381 GSP 09:00 → CLT 10:16 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2762 GSP 20:27 → CLT 21:23 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5381 American flown by PSA Flight history →	GSP 09:00	CLT 10:16	14%	7%	1.5%	90%
AA 5654 American flown by PSA Flight history →	GSP 07:00	CLT 08:16	14%	7%	1.8%	89%
OH 5664 PSA	GSP 10:07	CLT 11:08	16%	7%	1.5%	no record
AA 3422 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSP 19:30	CLT 20:40	21%	4%	0.8%	69%
AA 5203 American flown by PSA Flight history →	GSP 18:18	CLT 19:34	23%	8%	0.9%	42%
AA 1705 American	GSP 16:08	CLT 17:04	30%	6%	2.3%	no record
AA 2762 American Flight history →	GSP 20:27	CLT 21:23	39%	7%	1.6%	68%
AA 5798 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 09:04	CLT 10:25	7%	5%	0.0%	93%
AA 6099 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 11:15	CLT 12:34	8%	4%	3.0%	92%
AA 5802 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 12:39	CLT 13:53	10%	3%	0.0%	90%
AA 5805 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 14:35	CLT 15:51	17%	7%	1.4%	83%
AA 6131 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 16:07	CLT 17:23	27%	8%	1.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON