Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 26–34% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 5031 GSP 06:35 → DCA 08:23 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 5208 GSP 19:20 → DCA 21:03 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5031 American flown by PSA Flight history →	GSP 06:35	DCA 08:23	26%	9%	2.4%	78%
AA 5204 American flown by PSA Flight history →	GSP 12:56	DCA 14:39	26%	9%	0.8%	56%
OH 5468 PSA	GSP 16:59	DCA 18:35	28%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 5267 American flown by PSA Flight history →	GSP 11:17	DCA 13:00	31%	11%	0.7%	73%
AA 5208 American flown by PSA Flight history →	GSP 19:20	DCA 21:03	34%	25%	1.3%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON